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Somewhat astonishingly, England stand on the verge of their first ODI series victory in South Africa, and their second in consecutive rubbers against Graeme Smith's men following their 4-0 victory at home in 2008. After three fluctuating performances and a washout at the Wanderers, they have emerged with a 2-1 series lead - a scoreline that they have reached on merit thanks to two dominant performances at Centurion and Port Elizabeth. The fact that those games were punctuated by a record-breaking thumping at Newlands merely underlines the ongoing battle for consistency that is forever England's weakness.
Nevertheless, for the first time in a long time, England have displayed the makings of an impressive one-day outfit. Andrew Strauss's personal form and tactical acumen make it hard to imagine a world in which he was exiled from the ODI set-up for two years, as was the case from the 2007 World Cup onwards. Eoin Morgan and Jonathan Trott have performed like instant veterans, while the veteran, Paul Collingwood, has rediscovered some of his finest form, with both bat and ball. The young guns, Luke Wright and Tim Bresnan, have started to move on from being merely promising, and all that remains is for Kevin Pietersen to rediscover his touch, and the renaissance will be complete. Or at least until their next Cape Town-esque relapse.
South Africa, on the other hand, have got a few issues to resolve. Whereas England have had plenty practice at moulding a side in which Andrew Flintoff makes cameo appearances, the loss of Jacques Kallis has proven stupendously hard to overcome. At Newlands, the decision to trust five specialist batsmen paid handsome dividends when Smith won the toss and AB de Villiers blazed a 75-ball century; but at Port Elizabeth, the middle-order looked threadbare to say the least once James Anderson started to turn the screw.
On the plus side, the addition of Morne Morkel has provided an extra layer of menace to South Africa's attack, particularly when coming round the wicket to England's left-handers, but the likely loss of Dale Steyn to a hamstring strain will undermine their bid for a share of the series. Nothing, however, could undermine it as much as the Durban weather, which has been abysmal all week. A washout would suffice for England - and provide a neat symmetry to the results column - but Strauss wants more than that. "We're fully expecting to play tomorrow," he said, "and if we do we will make sure we're at the races and put South Africa under pressure again."
Form guide
South Africa - LWLWW
England - WLWLL
Team news
South Africa's dilemma is whether to stick or twist ... do they recall Herschelle Gibbs to the middle order in an admission that their batting is vulnerable, or do they trust Ryan McLaren to knuckle down at No. 7 and put his consecutive ducks to the back of his mind? Given that Steyn's injury leaves them lacking in firepower, the likelihood is a reprieve for McLaren, whose medium-pacers have had their moments in the series, and a silent prayer that de Villiers comes as good as he did at Newlands.
South Africa (possible) 1 Graeme Smith (capt), 2 Hashim Amla, 3 AB de Villiers, 4 JP Duminy, 5 Alviro Petersen, 6 Mark Boucher (wk), 7 Ryan McLaren, 8 Wayne Parnell, 9 Johan Botha, 10 Morne Morkel, 11 Charl Langeveldt
No such concerns for England, who have a settled first XI for arguably the first time since the 1992 World Cup final (when even then they had to decide between Allan Lamb and Robin Smith). James Anderson reported a knee injury in the build-up to the Port Elizabeth match, but figures of 5 for 23 in ten overs suggest he shook it off pretty effectively, meaning Graham Onions will once again be left carrying the drinks.
England (possible) 1 Andrew Strauss (capt), 2 Jonathan Trott, 3 Kevin Pietersen, 4 Paul Collingwood, 5 Eoin Morgan, 6 Matt Prior (wk), 7 Luke Wright, 8 Stuart Broad, 9 Tim Bresnan, 10 Graeme Swann, 11 James Anderson.
Watch out for
Kevin Pietersen needs a score to settle him down, because it's not so much nerves as nervous energy that has been his problem so far in the tour. After a four-month lay-off, KP has been visibly rushing to pick up where he left off, never more so than at Port Elizabeth, when he could have been dismissed twice in a six-ball innings. More haste, less speed is the motto that springs to mind. If he allows himself a little longer to regain his timing, the entire squad could find themselves reaping the benefits as the Test series approaches.
It ought not to be a coincidence, but such is the hold that Graeme Smith has over his team these days, that his rare failure at Port Elizabeth - lbw for 2 - was the cue for South Africa to crumble to an ignominious defeat. Conversely, when his agenda-setting strokeplay has come off - never more so than during his 44-ball 88 in the second Twenty20 at Centurion - there's been no stopping the momentum he generates. If, as could happen amid the showers, the Durban game becomes a rain-reduced sprint, his 20-over prowess could well come to the fore again.
Stats and trivia
- South Africa's overall record in ODIs against England since 2008 now reads seven defeats and a solitary win in eight completed games, which is their worst clutch of results since the two teams first met in 1992
- Ominously, the last ODI match that England played in Durban, in 2005, was a washout. The match was abandoned with England uncomfortably placed on 7 for 2, chasing 213.
Quotes
""We really want to come and win this series 3-1. When you start thinking about rain and things like that, it is going to affect your preparation."
Andrew Strauss is determined to keep his mind on the job, despite gloomy forecasts.
"For us the priority is the Test series and we would never compromise Dale's chances of being 100% fit for the first Test [at Centurion] by playing him on Friday."
Mickey Arthur hasn't abandoned the ODIs entirely, but it's clear he's already shifting his focus.
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